05 June 2019
Apple and Samsung are expected to benefit most from Huawei’s misfortunes, says Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The analyst believes that the tech giants will pick up Huawei customers outside China, due to the recent ban on the company being able to use Google's Android operating system.
In a note to investors, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo states that sales of iPhones are likely to benefit from the current situation with Huawei. Google has been forced to suspend the Chinese company's Android licence which will impact it the most. Kuo adds that "some operators in non-Chinese markets have stopped selling Huawei smartphones" which will boost Apple iPhone sales. Huawei is also reportedly reassessing its 2020 goal of becoming the top smartphone vendor.
"If Huawei smartphone shipments continue to decline in non-Chinese markets," he says, "Apple's market share gain... is likely to offset its market share loss in the Chinese market, and we expect that annual iPhone shipments could return to around 200 million units."
"We think Samsung might be the primary beneficiary," he continues, "if Huawei loses market shares in the non-Chinese smartphone markets. We estimate Samsung smartphone shipments could reach 300-320 million units (versus the previous forecast of 290 million units)."
Prior to this report, Kuo has predicted that iPhone sales will reach 200 million per year, which will be at the time 5G models are released in 2020. Kuo had previously estimated that iPhone sales would be between 195 million and 200 million by 2020. However, nearly 70 - 75 million sales in 2020 will be in the latter half of the year when Apple ships 5G models.
Kuo stated that despite previous doubts about Apple's plans, it is likely that the company's 2020 iPhone line up will be 5G.
"We believe the uncertainty has been removed after Apple and Qualcomm's end of patent dispute and entrance into a six-year licensing deal," he said, "and Intel's announcement that it will exit the 5G baseband chip business."